Free Football prediction

Sure Bets

A surebet is at least 2 placed bets with seperate bookmakers on different outcome for the same event, which creates a winning by any outcome. Bookmakers create different odds due to them judging the likelihood of an outcome differently. The Key Rate for a surebet would be above 100%. Example:

Bookmaker A offers the over 2,5 goals for odds of 1,9.

Bookmaker B offers the under 2,5 goals for odds of 2.2.

That creates a Key Rate of: 101,96%. The stake would be placed according to the odds, in our example:

53,66 % on over 2,5 Bookmaker A

46,34 % aunder 2,5 Bookmaker B

The winning would be 1,95 %by any outcome. Surebets should only be used by experienced gamblers as there are several risks such as short notice change of odds, technical issues at bookmakers, stake limits, different policies for the postponement of events or cancellation of bets.

Trading - Strategy

Before kick off

1. Odds can go up and down before the event even started. At times these changes can be pretty big. Reason for the change are usually factors which influence the game like injuries, suspensions, motivation and so on. Over a longer period you will find reoccuring bias and thats where you act. Trading before kick off is the skill of judging the way odds are going to change.

   Trading is done best at betting exchanges like Betfair, Betdaq or Betsson. Playing at only one provider saves you unneccessary calculating as this is all done by the exchange.

   If you suspect odds to fall you would buy these odds (BACK) first. Once the odds have fallen you would than sell (LAY). The „What if“ figure and eventual profit/loss will be shown by your betting exchange immediately.

   If you suspect odds to rise, you would Lay the current odds first before Backing them once they have risen. Timing is of greatest importance and can only be improved with experience. This will take time. Be prepared to take small losses rather than risk all if odds dont develop the way you anticipated.

2. This system can also be used for ouright markets. The odds will change in relation to the position the team/athlete is in. The odds are seen similarly to the price of shares at the stock market. The odds of a team winnig a tournament for example will become smaller after progressing to the next round.

3. More often then not it is worth looking at exactly the same bet at different markets for one event. You can find them to have different odds so you can trade yourself a little profit.

   These bets are for example:

   • 3 way (1X2) is equivalent to the Asian Handicap -0,5
   • No goalscorer is equivalent to correct score 0:0
   • Winning nationality is equivalent to winning athlete

During the event (In Play)

Trading can also be done while the event is taking place. If you intend to trade „In Play“ please ensure yourself the event will go „In Play“ before placing a bet as not all events do so. The odds will change more violently depending on the happening at the event. At football, goals or red cards are the main cause for big changes of odds. Here are 3 different strategies while trading „In Play“.

1. LAY X

For this system you need 2 fairly similarly strong teams. The draw is being „layed“ before the Kick off. The aim is for one team to score a goal, which will raise the odds for the draw as it is now less likely. The Draw will now be „backed“ at higher odds than it was „layed“ before. With the right stake it will garantee a profit at any result of the event. If the game stays goalless for a long time you have to decide to either trade out with a small loss or risk all by letting it run to the end.

2. Over/Under:

Watching a football game you usually can judge the type of game, meaning a very attacking game or with the focus on defense. A very open game is likely to have many goals. In this case the Over 2.5 should be „backed“. After an early goal the odds will go down as it is now more likey to be a game with more than 2.5 goals. The lower odds should now be „layed“ to garantee a profit at any outcome of the game.

The basics are always the same

Type of bet – Strategy

Numerous strategies are based around a single type of bet for example only bets on Draw, Over/Under or correct score just to name a few. We will explain some a little more detailed.

1. Draw:

Most people avoid the bet on a draw as it is probably most boring to watch. They either want to see their team win or have an oppinion towards the favourite or the underdog. But because of that it is usually worth looking at the bet on the draw in detail.

Statistically during the football season 2009/10 at the German Bundesliga 28.1% of all games finished as a draw. The statistic is to be known higher in other major european leagues. If you now consider other indications such as Head to Head, last results and under/over likelyness you can maximise your chances of hitting a draw. The biggest advantage for the bet on the draw are of course the odds of well above 3 which means that 1 correct bet in 3 is sufficient to make you a profit. It is important to play this strategy over a longer period and with similar stakes.

2. Under/Over:

You will find there are teams that tend to score more or less goals/points due to their style of play. Very offensive teams usually score more goals upfront but are likely to be open at the back. The opposite applies to very defensive teams. One can also find tendencies in certain competitions like Champions League, Europa League or various national leagues. If you use the under/over strategy you also need to consider stats like the Head to Head, motivation and form. The biggest advantage towards the tradtional 3 way bet (1X2) is that there can only be two outcome (2 way) and the odds are still pretty high. This bet suits people who usually pick the wrong winner.

3. Asienhandicap:

Please see the Betting encyclopaedia for a detailed explanation how the Asian handicap bet works. It may look confusing at first, but is definitely worth a careful look due to the following advantages: Asian Handicap reduces the 3 way bet to a 2 way bet. You can basically adjust your own odds to your predicted event outcome. There are a number of strategies which can be played with the Asian Handicap bet.

• Only odds of around 2
• Insure against the possible draw with half winnings or losses
• Only high odds on favorites
• Outsider bets -> winnings on close defeat of the underdog.


4. Correct score

If you analyze a game purely by statistics you are likely to develop an opinion of the possible result. Playing the correct score bet has the big advantage of massive odds, usually above 7. But as the odds indicate, the chance of predicting the exact score is very small. Statistically last year the results in the 5 major european leagues looked as follows: 1:1 - 9,4 %, 2:1 - 9,1 %, 1:0 - 9,0 %, 2:0 - 8,9 %, 0:0 - 7,9%, 0:1 - 5,6%, 0:2 - 5,1% and higher results come in under 5%

For a high success rate at the correct score bet you would need to include a few more points in your thoughts.

• chose likely under games (fewer goals mean fewer possible outcome)
• chose 2 teams with fairly similar strength and playing style
• chose certain competitions and leagues, for example Champions League, World Cup or European Championship as teams are following strict tactical rules and goals are less frequent)
5. Double Chance

As previously mentioned 28.1% of all German Bundesliga games during season 2009/10 finished as a draw. Most of these draws will have ruined a lot of winning bets. Thats why the Double Chance is a very popular bet with lots of gamblers. Biggest disadvantage is obviously the smaller odds. But the success rate should improve considerably when covering 2 possible outcome. It doesnt really matter if you go for the underdog or the favorite. Each person has to find what works best for him/her.

Double Chance bets are very good to use for clearing bonuses of bookmakers due to their likelyhood of success.

Accumulator/System bets – Strategy

A very popular strategy is the possibility of combining various single bets to an accumulator or a system bet. A system bet can achive very high odds as the individual odds will simply accumulate. Unfortunately, the placing of an accumulator restricts gamblers to odds of that one bookmaker they chose. It is not possible to combine single bets of different bookmakers. That means the gambler can not chose the best odds for his picks but needs to accept the one bookmakers odds.

Accumulator offer a number of strategies:

1. Out of a pre selected number of games the supposedly 4-5 safest games will be combined to an accumulator or a system bet. These games usually are from the major European Leagues as the difference of strength between top and bottom of the table are quite high. The single Odds of around 1,2 – 1,5 add up to odds around 4-5. This accumulator will win in approx 50% of all cases, which only needs odds of above 2 to make profit.
2. For tipsters who like to bet on higher odds the system bet is a very useful addition. We recommend bets like Trixie, Yankee or Canadian. The already higher single odds accumulated will become sometimes astronomical odds. This strategy needs to be played over a longer period as most of these system bets will be lost and a winning bet is rare.
3. Sometimes it is wise to add a supposedly safe bet to your chosen single bet. This will improve the odds quite significantly.

Example from the World Cup 2010 in South Africa:

Game 1: Ivory Coast 3,90 X 3,10 Portugal 2,00

Game 2: England 1,22 X 5,50 Algerien 12,50

The original single bet on Portugal is at odds of 2. If you add the „very safe“ bet of 1.22 to it you will get accumulated odds of 2.44.

Another possibility is the accumulation of 2-3 Double Chance bets. The bet is in each case with the favorite.

Spiel 1: South Africa - Uruguay - Draw or Uruguay = odds 1,25
Spiel 2: Greece– Nigeria - draw orNigeria = odds 1,16
Spiel 3: Ghana – Australia - draw or Ghana = odds 1,18

All three games accumulate to a considerable 1,711.

Underdog & Favorite – Strategy

A very common strategy is the betting on only underdogs or favorites. But that doesnt mean you always bet on big odds(underdog) or small odds (Favorites).

UNDERDOG

the majority of punters are likely to bet on the favorite. But sometimes it is not worth betting on the favorite as the odds have no value. Meaning the offered odds are in no relation to the likelyhood of the favorite winning the game. It is therefore more value to bet on the underdog. Example:

SC Freiburg 15.0 X 5,5 Bayern Munich 1.3

The majority would think the game is an easy win for Bayern Munich and bet on the 1.3. But would Bayern really win 4 in 5 games (away) or rather Freiburg really would not win 14 games of 15? If you consider Head to Head statistics, current form and background information the bet on the underdog is sometimes more worthwile. To cover the annoying draw many punters would play this game as a Double Chance or even as an Asian Handicap +1.5 on Freiburg. This will vastly reduce the odds but the draw and even a close 0:1 loss has been covered. As you can see, the bet on the underdog does not always mean big odds.

FAVORITE

It would be to easy to just simply bet on every favorite to win. Favorites should be carefully considered as too many slip up. The current form is very important as is the impact of other competitions such as Champions League or the Europa League. It is common for important players to rest the League game before an important international fixture. The motivation of a massiv favorite towards the league game against an underdog after a very good game in the Champions League is sometimes pretty low. Therefore not a game to bet. With careful consideration it is possible to make a long term profit with odds below 1.4. Of course, the Asian Handicap can produce bigger odds for the favorite by giving the underdog a fictional lead of X goals. This can be used if the favorite is likely to score 2 or more goals.

Large Odds & Mini Odds – Strategy

Sometimes it can be difficult to see the real profit or loss over a longer period. With odds of around 2 it is easy to see, but a wide range of played odds makes it quite difficult. Therefore some gamblers have set themselves minimum or maximum odds. Which way to go is a decision for each individual as this can be a question of character. Mini odds will give you a lot of won bets with small profits. Betting only on larger odds will give you a number of lost bets, but my be more profitable in the long run. Furthermore the stake is considerably lower for large odds than betting on mini odds.

Large odds

as previously mentioned betting on large odds does not always mean betting on the outsider. A lot of experts play in particular the Asian Handicap with larger odds(2-3) as well as the over/under bets with odds above 2. The aim is always to have a success rate of 50% to stay nicely in profit. System bets, correct score or bets on draw are suitable as well for this strategy.

Mini Odds

This strategy will see the gambler only betting odds up to max 1.4. It is very popular with beginners as it looks very tempting to put big sums on small odds. Mind you, beginners usually follow this strategy unknowingly and without a system. But with the right value at your tips and over a longer period this strategy can be successful too.

Here is a list of a few do‘s and dont’s when betting on Mini odds:

• Place single bets on favorites or as Double Chance or as Asian Handicap
• At In PLAY markets:
• No more goals scored
• Bets on the „Under“ goals market
• No goal of a particular playe
• We would discourage from bets on penalties or red cards

Mini odds can also be achieved by placing 2 or more bets on the same event covering a differnt outcome with each bet:

• You can place a bet on both teams to win to achieve mini odds. Of course, you could just lay the draw (please see Betting exchange) to achieve the same or the Double Chance 12.
• Place a few possible correct score bets on the same event
• At sports like motor racing you can bet on a few race winners rather than just one PLEASE BE AWARE THAT YOUR OVERALL STAKE WOULD GROW WITH EACH BET ADDED.

Progressiv stake - Strategy

Good money management is vital to every sports gambler. Even more so when playing progression. The stake of each bet is depending on the outcome ot the bet before. We list 3 progression strategies starting with the most commonly played:

Double stake after lost bet – odds around 2,00

Originally from the casino gambling, a very small stake is placed on a bet with odds of around 2. If the bet wins, the stake will stay the same for the next bet. But if the bet is lost, the stake will now be doubled for the next bet with odds of around 2. If that bet wins, an overall profit has been made which would not have been the case with a fixed stake. If that bet should lose again, the stake will again be doubled for the next bet and so on. It is important to start as small as possible as you must be able to cover a longer series of losses. Furthermore you must be prepared of betting pretty high stakes after a longer series of lost bets. This strategy is not for everyone as it takes a lot of nerves on a negative run.

Continuous bet on the same team:

• The idea is to bet continuously on the very same team as it will have to win eventually. The actual progression in case of a lost bet is a little bit more complicated than simply doubling it. Depending on the odds of the new bet you have to calculate the stake to cover your last loss + 100% of your intended net profit.
• Say, you back your team at odds of 3 after a lost bet, you only need 50% of your original stake + 100% of the intended net profits of your lost bet.
• If the odds of the next bet are only 1.33 you will need 300% of your last stake + 100% of intended net profit. After each lost bet this needs to be calculated to cover all losses and make an overall profit it the bet finally wins.

Adjust stakes to winnings

A basic idea of many gamblers is to only play with their winnings as this garantees to Net loss to your paid in money. It is a different thing to risk your „own“ money or money which you have already won. It is advisable to start off with pretty small stake and get as much info and help to your bets as possible. Tipstersworld can help you chosing the right bets to get going and to consistently place good bets.

Avoid trying to compensate for losses with higher stakes and do not become greedy after a good run. You need discipline. Having a betting diary at Tipstersworld helps you keeping an overview on your statistics.

Bookies Bonus – Strategy

Almost every bookmaker offers a welcome bonus or even a return bonus after a very long absence. It is advised to use these bonuses but you must read about the terms and conditions first. Each bookmaker got different terms comes the pay out of bonuses. Specifically 2 points are worth mentioning. Most bookies demand a certain amount of turnover at certain minimum odds before the bonus can be paid out. Furthermore look out for maximum stakes and sudden change of odds.

There are 2 ways of clearing your bonus:

• The first is obviously via winning bets. It may be easier to follow well known successful tipsters with their tips to clear the bonus if you dont have the betting knowledge yourself yet. Of course, it is possible to cover yourself by placing „safety bets“ with other bookmakers like Double Chance or Asian Handicap.
• A little more complicated but 100% sure is to spread your stake over 2 bookmakers

You are looking to place a near enough sure bet. It doesnt even need to be a real sure bet as your bonus will be the net profit of both bets. You should make sure though the key rate (LINK TO ENCYCLOPAEDIA KEY RATE) is as close to 100% as possible as you are basically wasting the difference between 100% and your actual key rate. A key rate of 80% upwards is sufficent for this strategy.

To simplify things look for 2way bets like Tennis or Basketball or create 2way bets via the Asian Handicaps. You now place a bet on team A to win at bookmaker A (the one with the bonus). At bookmaker B you place a bet on team B to win. The stake must be chosen depending on the odds. You are aiming at a similar win on both bets. Only 1 bet can win but the bonus has been turned over once if the bet at bookmaker A is successful. Do this as often as it needs to be done to be eligable for a Bonus pay out. If the bet at bookmaker B is successful you have „lost“ the bet+bonus at bookmaker A but the bonus has actually been transferred to the account of bookmaker B with your winning bet.